The 7.9 Scenario,
Analysis and Writing

This book is first available in serial form, chapter by chapter as I write them, on this page.

I reserve the right to change chapters as I go along, so I am dating each entry. I may also write the chapters out of order. Watch the dates of last change.

The chapters are PDF files, and you will require the Adobe Acrobat Reader 5.0 or higher to read them.

By accessing these files you acknowledge that you understand these files are copyrighted material, and you are only allowed to make a copy for your personal use on your personal computer. Please honor that commitment. I am not putting the book into the public domain.

Oh yes, if you find a typo or other blunder, please let me know. I always appreciate help from my audience.

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Chapter 1: Hooked (1/19/05 - no charge)

Chapter 2: How Do You Write a Scenario? (1/19/05 - no charge)

Chapter 3: What Is The History of The New Madrid Fault? (3/11/05 - requires key)

Chapter 4: What Makes an Earthquake Dangerous? (requires key)

Chapter 5: How Does An Earthquake Physically Do Damage? (requires key)

Chapter 6: How Much Damage Can an Earthquake Do? (requires key)

Chapter 7: What Makes an Earthquake Happen? (requires key)

Chapter 8: What Is Earthquake Magnitude? (requires key)

Chapter 9: What is Shaking Intensity? (requires key)

Chapter 10: What Difference Does Local Geology Make? (requires key)

Chapter 11: What Difference Does Construction Make? (requires key)

Chapter 12: Can Anyone Predict Earthquakes? (requires key)

Chapter 13: Do You Understand Risk and Probability? (requires key)

Chapter 14: What Are Your Local Risks? (requires key)

Chapter 15: What Are The Risks To Our Country? (requires key)

Chapter 16: What Is The 7.9 Scenario? (requires key)

Chapter 17: How To Build A Shaking Model (requires key)

Chapter 18: How To Do A Damage/Casualty Model (requires key)

Chapter 19: How To Build An Economic Model (requires key)

Chapter 20: How To Model The Impact Of An Earthquake (requires key)

Chapter 21: How Should We Personally Respond? (requires key)

Chapter 22: How Should Businesses And Governments Respond? (requires key)

Chapter 23: How Do We Recover From The 7.9 Scenario? (requires key)

Chapter 24: What Does The Future Hold? (requires key)

Chapter 25: What Conclusions Have I Reached? (requires key)