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Article written by John Lovett
The Hot Springs Sentinel-Record
New Madrid Earthquake
Scenario Strikes in Novel
By John Lovett - printed in
The Sentinel-Record, March 28, 2004
Kind of like the movie "Twister,"
but for earthquakes, Sam Penny's self-published novel "Memphis
7.9" imagines the highly possible scenario of a nervous
New Madrid Fault finally breaking down and causing a catastrophic
situation. While travelling through the state recently, the retired
geologist dropped off a copy at the Garland County Library and
the newspaper.
Through characters in both California
and Arkansas, including a geology student who has learned how
to predict earthquakes, Penny weaves a readable tale in this
first book of a three-part series.
The author¹s fascination
with the subject of a New Madrid earthquake comes across well
in the 239-page book, with good discriptions of what happens
many miles below us, although the needed information about tectonic
plates and fault lines may seem a little forced within some conversations.
"Seismologists agree such an event is inevitable,"
Penny says of the New Madrid. "And though they disagree
on the timing, they estimate there is a 7 to 10 percent chance
it will happen sometime within the next 50 years. It could happen
next week . . . Most people do not realize the extent of the
catastrophe that will happen."
The New Madrid Fault is 160 miles
east of Hot Springs. In 1811 and 1812 it slipped and caused a
earthquake so intense it reversed the flow of the Mississippi
River. In the event of another major earthquake Penny suspects
that Hot Springs would see minor property damage, except in older
brick structures in the historic section which would be more
heavily impacted. "Hot Springs could expect a small number
of fatalities and a dozen or more serious injuries," Penny
wrote.
In the preface Penny says the
probability of an 8-plus magnitude event is "quite low,
low enough for some to ignore." However, he contends the
chance of an earthquake in the magnitude of 7.0 to 7.9 is much
higher. When he used FEMA figures to estimate the total impact
of a 7.9 earthquake, he says he was amazed to find a 1-in-6 chance
it could injure nearly 750,000 people and kill over 100,000. |
