The 7.9 Scenario

News Articles

Article written by Scott Welton,
County News Editor,
Sikeston Standard-Democrat

By Scott Welton - printed in Standard Democrat, April 25, 2004

SIKESTON - For those of us living on top of the New Madrid Fault, it is a story that should provoke not only thought, but action as well.

"Sikeston is sitting on top a bomb, if you like, and it will go off," said Sam Penny, author of "Memphis 7.9." Penny announced April 11 that he was especially pleased to see his novel made available at the Book Bug bookstore in Miner on Highway AA.

"I believe my book holds a special interest for the residents of the Sikeston area because, just like in Memphis, here we find a juxtaposition of a significant population center with a dangerous, active fault," he said.

You might call it a "what if" book. Technically it is science fiction, but this book doesn't have space aliens or starships like most novels of that genre.

"I call it 'reality fiction,'" said Penny. "It is fiction, but I am doing my very best to tell what will really happen - not some fantasy or horror story just for the sake of horror."

Penny said his interest in earthquakes began when he moved to California in 1960 after growing up in Oklahoma.

"Living in California gets you interested in earthquakes," said Penny. "There has been enough publicity in California that people are just aware."

Californians have never forgotten the San Francisco Earthquake, and even for those who don't live in California, word association almost always links "earthquake" with the words "San Francisco" in people's minds.

The most dangerous fault in the country, however, is right under our feet. Yet, in places like Memphis authorities are still debating the adoption of the International Building Standards when buildings built to IBS standards are much more likely to survive an earthquake. "People who live there are complacent," says one character in the book.

"I think the other thing is you actually feel earthquake more often in California - the little ones," Penny said. "Around Memphis there is a half mile of mud between the surface and the bedrock and that tends to make it harder to feel."

It wasn't until the October 1989 earthquake at Loma Prieta, Calif., that Penny found himself "totally consumed with earthquakes."

"That's the one they call the 'World Series Earthquake' because the World Series was about to start when it hit," he recalled. "I was in Sacramento, which is 150 miles away, and I felt it and it scared the hell out of me."

Images of the mile and a half section of viaduct freeway that collapsed struck a chord in Penny. "I used to drive that structure every day - I knew every bump in it," he said.

Using the Internet as his primary source, Penny dove into serious research on earthquakes. As he got ready to retire, the idea for a book that seriously explored the effects of a major earthquake grew within him.

While he wanted to make it as factual as possible, Penny decided on a novel "because there are a lot of non-fiction books out there. I have read the non-fiction books and they are boring. I've written non-fiction articles and nobody reads them but scientists."

"My desire is for all the public to understand about earthquakes," he explained. "The public needs to be aware and concerned about earthquakes because the special interests and bureaucracies in the government ignore the problem too much."

Part of the problem is how the concept of risk is addressed. It is easy to put a dollar value on a house, for example, because a building is replaceable.

With earthquakes, however, Penny said it is like playing Russian Roulette, "and your brains are not replaceable, so you can not assign a value to your brains."

"It could very well destroy the economy of the Unites States," he continued. "Not just damage it, but destroy it. And that, in my opinion, is something that is not replaceable."

Individuals and governments need to "take a more pro-active approach," Penny said, including contingency planning "which is making sure that you have everything you need in case something goes wrong."

Having a stockpile of the life essentials like food and water is critically important, he said.

"When a giant earthquake happens, if it's a really large earthquake it will be weeks, if not months, before some real repairs can be started," he said. "It will be days before help comes because everybody within 200-300 miles of you will be suffering as well."

Additionally, both individuals and governments "need to do mitigation," Penny said, which is "trying to soften the effect."

Area residents can do things like making sure their water heaters are strapped to a wall, or checking to see if the building is bolted down to foundation.

Governments can make sure next school built is in place that won't flood or suffer severe earthquake damage. "Some of this is just common sense," Penny said.