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Press Article: May 5, 2004
NBC's Mini-Series "10.5"
Good, Bad, and Ugly
A Review by Sam Penny
NBC's made-for-TV mini-series
"10.5" aired Sunday and Monday, May 2 and 3. The production
can be critiqued in several ways. Most reviewers will comment
on the program's merits as a movie. I consider how well the show
informs the public about earthquakes; in that light it is a complete
flop. In fact, the sensationalism and misinformation presented
in the program may well cost some people their lives.
When I retired in 1998 from a
career as a scientist, engineer, and executive, I turned author
and lecturer and studied in detail the effects of a great earthquake
on the population and economy of the central United States. The
results of my research were horrific, but they had nothing in
common with NBC's mini-series.
"10.5" tells of a fantasy
earthquake originating from a fault seven hundred kilometers
deep that is about to drop the entire west coast of the country
into the Pacific. The movie spins a rescue mission taken from
Peter Hernon's novel "8.4" to save the day. There is
simply no scientific basis for either the problem or the solution
presented in "10.5." I consider the work to be pure
fantasy.
Consider instead the worst earthquake
that can really happen in the United States. It is not on the
west coast, it is in the center of the country. Based upon available
data from the United States Geological Survey and the Federal
Emergency Management Agency, a magnitude 7.9 earthquake on the
New Madrid Fault can kill 80,000 people, injure 350,000, and
leave over six million homeless across twenty states in the eastern
part of our country.
Such an event would instantly
destroy 4% of our country's manufacturing capability and 20%
of its transportation capacity. The ripple effect of losing industry
raw materials, energy sources, parts, and logistics could result
in a 10% drop in the United State's Gross Domestic Product within
days. It could turn the United States into a second rate power.
The probability for the "10.5"
event is zero; it will never happen. On the other hand, the USGS
estimates the chances for an earthquake between magnitude 7.5
and 8.0 on the New Madrid sometime within the next fifty years
to be 7% to 10%. Those are the odds you will blow your brains
out if you play Russian Roulette with a twelve shot revolver.
Consider the Good, Bad, and
Ugly aspects of the movie.
The Good about "10.5"
is that the mini-series focused people's minds on the fact that
the earth can shake, dangerously. Once aware, people can learn
and prepare to save lives and property.
The Bad is that "10.5"
sensationalizes the fantasy of the west coast falling into the
ocean and shows an astounding number of violations of physical
reality. Some of the special effects are outstanding, but they
belong in "The Matrix." The movie is not a learning
experience. Instead it passes along false information that could
prove fatal when an earthquake really happens.
Because of geological factors
and the lack of preparedness, a giant earthquake in the center
of the country will be ten times more destructive than one of
the same size on the west coast. The Ugly fact is that "10.5"
got the subject right: the most dangerous catastrophe that faces
the United States is indeed a great earthquake. But it is one
that happens on the New Madrid Seismic Zone in the central US
alongside and under the Mississippi River. It is not "10.5"
or any other earthquake on the west coast.
A majority of the public and
some parts of government and industry in the central United States
do not recognize the dangers they face. Some even argue that
such an earthquake will not happen for hundreds of years, so
"why worry?" The USGS disagrees, saying that the danger
of such an inevitable earthquake on the New Madrid is the same
as one the same size in southern California.
Things can be done to lessen
the impact when the inevitable happens. Things can be done to
mitigate the costs in life and property. Things can be done to
plan for contingencies. But such things happen only when the
public is properly informed of the risks and support common sense
efforts by their elected officials. "10.5" did not
help.
About Sam Penny:
My chosen mission is to inform
the people of our country of the dangers they face from the New
Madrid. Having written and read scientific articles in the past,
I understand the limitations of disseminating information through
those channels. Feeling the need to reach the wider public audience,
I present the results of my studies as a "what if"
story and am writing four novels called The 7.9 Scenario series,
telling of how such an earthquake occurs, what it does to our
environment, and what to expect afterwards. Some say it is Science
Fiction; I call it Reality Fiction.
Memphis 7.9 and Broken River
are available on-line from the author's website at www.the79scenario.com.
The books are also available from www.amazon.com, www.booksurge.com,
and in selected bookstores around the country.
# # #
Penny is traveling throughout
the eastern half of the country on an extended book tour and
is available for questions and radio/TV interviews by telephone.
Review copies are available for the media upon request. |
