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News Article: FOR RELEASE ON
February 14, 2005
That Arkansas Earthquake:
Don’t Worry, Right?
Analysis by Sam Penny
Thursday morning, February 10,
at 8:04:54 am, seismic forces ripped a fracture the size of a
160-acre farm through the basement rock 16 kilometers below the
Buffalo Creek Ditch, 10 miles west-southwest of Dell, Arkansas.
Residents felt the earthquake from the 4.1 magnitude temblor
strongly from Cairo, Illinois, to Tunica, Mississippi, and points
east. Even folks in sophisticated Memphis, 47 miles away, looked
around in wonder.
In the book Memphis 7.9, the
fictional Dr. Paul Kenton reported on the first fictional earthquake,
“At 9:12 this morning a magnitude 4.4 earthquake occurred
at a depth of 11.3 kilometers with an epicenter near Dell, Arkansas.
While this temblor is stronger than usual, events like this are
a common occurrence on the New Madrid Seismic Zone, and there
is nothing to worry about.”
“There is nothing to worry
about”—words to live in infamy.
The New Madrid Seismic Zone,
stretching from east central Arkansas to the southern tip of
Illinois, is a major source of concern to the US Geological Survey
and FEMA. In 1811 and 1812 a series of giant earthquakes fractured
that fault zone, creating ten new lakes in the Mississippi valley,
tilting the land and forcing the Mississippi River to run backwards,
and reportedly ringing church bells in Boston, over a thousand
miles away—the strongest earthquake to strike the contiguous
48 States in recorded history.
The USGS says there is a one
in ten chance of another giant earthquake on the New Madrid Fault
in the next fifty years. Most seismologists agree that a giant
New Madrid earthquake is eventually inevitable. It is only a
matter of time before an earthquake of magnitude 7.9, roughly
the size of the first earthquake that struck December 16, 1811,
once again fractures the New Madrid.
How Bad Could It Be—What Is The Risk?
An estimated five thousand white
settlers and black slaves could be found along the Mississippi
River in 1811, and less than a million resided west of the Appalachian
Mountains. These hardy frontiersmen and their families lived
close to the earth in the forests and along the riverbanks in
log cabins or on their boats. Eleven deaths were officially reported,
but some historians estimate that as many as a thousand souls
perished along the river during the next two months of shaking.
The fatality rate in the fracture zone could have been 10% or
more.
The USGS and FEMA have published
studies to estimate the expected shaking intensity from earthquakes
of various magnitudes along the New Madrid Fault. When those
estimates are cross-multiplied by the US census, the results
are staggering. Today, an estimated 32,000,000 people live in
the 300,000-square-mile area surrounding the fault that would
be at risk of damage from a giant earthquake of magnitude 7.9
on the New Madrid.
In a worst-case scenario, the
death toll would be 20,000 and grow to 80,000 if major flooding
resulted from the shaking. Half a million people would be injured,
and as many as 10,000,000 could be left homeless. And to make
matters worse, those who survive—and are faced with bringing
about the recovery of the United States—could find that
10% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product and 20% of its
shipping capacity had been wiped out in the space of 13 minutes,
the time it takes for the seismic waves to spread across the
eastern half of our country from an epicenter on the New Madrid.
The February 11 seismic event
in Arkansas tells us that the New Madrid Seismic Zone is still
an active fault. It is only a matter of time before another giant
earthquake will once again rip through the center of the United
States. There is no way to stop the earthquake, but we can—and
must—reduce the potential damage.
Preparation and Planning Make a Difference
A lesson for our country to learn
is that by becoming aware and preparing and planning, we can
make a difference. Too often, local leaders and business interests
downplay the danger, unwilling to invest in a safe future even
when the risk is the destruction of our country’s way of
life. The human race can significantly reduce the level of the
tragedy associated with such a natural disaster, but not by sticking
our head in the sand.
Proactive leadership is required.
Support of the seismological and structural research efforts
of the Universities, the public education efforts of the Central
United States Earthquake Consortium, and the preparedness and
mitigation efforts of the state and local Emergency Management
Agencies is vital. More funding from the government and business
is needed. Public awareness and education of what the future
holds is essential.
Five years ago some scientists
wondered, “What would happen if a giant tsunami should strike
in the Indian Ocean?” Now they know. Had the governments
been proactive at that time, the toll would have been much less
than the 225,000 who have died so far.
Now is the time for everyone
across this country to realize the stake they have in how well
the people in the New Madrid damage zone plan and prepare for
this inevitable event. True, it may not happen in our lifetime,
but what if it does? Now is the time to become proactive in the
central United States.
Mother Nature gives us only so
many warnings. After February 11 there is one fewer than before
on the New Madrid.
About Sam Penny
Sam Penny retired from a career
in physics, computer science, engineering, and corporate management
to become an author. His analysis of the present-day effects
of another giant earthquake on the New Madrid Seismic Zone serves
as the basis for Memphis 7.9 and Broken River, the first two
books in The 7.9 Scenario series of novels. He continues to write,
working on his next novel and a non-fiction book detailing his
analysis.
Penny’s objective is to
raise public awareness of the danger our country faces from the
New Madrid Fault, and to lobby for increased funding and action
to prepare, plan, and mitigate the inevitable disaster. Having
written and read scientific articles in the past, Penny understands
the limitations of disseminating information to the public through
those channels. Instead, he is presenting the results of his
studies as a “what if” story and is writing novels
in The 7.9 Scenario series, telling of how such an earthquake
occurs, what it does to our environment, and what to expect afterwards.
Some say it is Science Fiction; others call it Reality Fiction.
Memphis 7.9 and Broken River
are available on-line from the author’s website at www.the79scenario.com.
The books are also available from www.amazon.com, www.booksurge.com,
and in selected bookstores around the country.
Penny is traveling throughout
the eastern half of the country on an extended book tour and
is available for questions and radio/TV interviews by telephone.
Review copies are available for the media upon request.
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