The 7.9 Scenario

4/16/04, Robert G - fellow RVer

Your characters are strong and the situations each are in gives a good cross section of the people in the area to make the story move along well. Your research is really great and well explained in the book. I don't agree with comment that you mentioned about the first two chapters being too slow. They are a necessary foundation for the book.

The main comment I have is that the dialog of the characters seems artificial and not what real folks would say. It seems forced and uses words that are on a higher level than that of daily usage. The thoughts could be the same but the manner of expression I think could be more down to earth.

I am looking forward to the next books. Will they be stand alone or will they depend upon having read the first one to make sense? That will be tricky to handle. Please include me in the early copies of the books as I am really looking forward to the series.

[sjp: I always appreciate input of this type; I will do my best to see that my writing improves with age. Broken River is a parallel story to Memphis 7.9 with only a small cross-connection. The Holy Grail brings the characters of both novels back together in Memphis for the recovery.]

3/31/04, Jim Wilkonson, Executive Director, CUSEC - Memphis, Tennessee

Sam Penny, author of Memphis 7.9 has taken a different approach to spreading the word about the New Madrid Seismic Zone and its associated risk. After more than fifteen years of studying available scientific and engineering literature concerning the New Madrid Seismic Zone, Mr. Penny decided against writing another scientific treatise, mainly for the reason that most people can’t identify with them. Instead he decided to approach the issue as a fictional account based on information he had garnered from researched data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the U.S. Geological Survey.

Memphis 7.9 pulls the reader in and captures the imagination while adding an element of “what if” that raises awareness to the hazard faced in the central United States.

3/29/04, John Lovett, The Sentinel-Record - Hot Springs, Arkansas

Kind of like the movie "Twister," but for earthquakes, Sam Penny's self-published novel "Memphis 7.9" imagines the highly possible scenario of a nervous New Madrid Fault finally breaking down and causing a catastrophic situation. While travelling through the state recently, the retired geologist dropped off a copy at the Garland County Library and the newspaper.

Through characters in both California and Arkansas, including a geology student who has learned how to predict earthquakes, Penny weaves a readable tale in this first book of a three-part series.

The author¹s fascination with the subject of a New Madrid earthquake comes across well in the 239-page book, with good discriptions of what happens many miles below us, although the needed information about tectonic plates and fault lines may seem a little forced within some conversations. "Seismologists agree such an event is inevitable," Penny says of the New Madrid. "And though they disagree on the timing, they estimate there is a 7 to 10 percent chance it will happen sometime within the next 50 years. It could happen next week . . . Most people do not realize the extent of the catastrophe that will happen."

The New Madrid Fault is 160 miles east of Hot Springs. In 1811 and 1812 it slipped and caused a earthquake so intense it reversed the flow of the Mississippi River. In the event of another major earthquake Penny suspects that Hot Springs would see minor property damage, except in older brick structures in the historic section which would be more heavily impacted. "Hot Springs could expect a small number of fatalities and a dozen or more serious injuries," Penny wrote.

In the preface Penny says the probability of an 8-plus magnitude event is "quite low, low enough for some to ignore." However, he contends the chance of an earthquake in the magnitude of 7.0 to 7.9 is much higher. When he used FEMA figures to estimate the total impact of a 7.9 earthquake, he says he was amazed to find a 1-in-6 chance it could injure nearly 750,000 people and kill over 100,000.

3/4/04, MidWest Book Reviews: Small Press Watch, March 2004

Memphis 7.9 by Sam Penny is an original novel arising from the inevitable prospect a devastating earthquake that strikes the New Madrid Fault Zone, which is located approximately 45 miles from Memphis, Tennessee.

The genesis of Memphis 7.9 comes from author Sam Penny's own projections using FEMA numbers to calculate a scenario of the destruction that will ensue when, not if, such a quake erupts. A dramatic and gripping narrative following the lives and deaths of ordinary people blasted by the wrath of the Earth. The book would be especially interesting to students of geology and those who study the impact of earthquake phenomena upon contemporary American society, culture, politics, and economics.

2/16/04, Sandy E - Anza, California

Living on the San Jacinto Fault line near Anza, I found this story to be so close to real that I couldn't help thinking what a great movie it would make.  The story is intricate, sometimes provocative, exciting on all levels and most of all winds around something we all fear: the trembling of the Earth with no warning.

The scientific details Sam Penny adds to the story made me think differently and more seriously about how extreme an earthquake can shake up our lives. I find myself sitting here thinking, we have not had an earthquake for a while, and who's to know?

Most of all I appreciated the combination of Sam's dedication, knowledge, and the way he educated me without my even expecting it. I look forward to the next installment in the series.

2/15/04, Sam S - South Dakota

Thanks for allowing me to review your book, "Memphis 7.9". In my lifetime I have not even read a dozen novels, so these comments come from "first impressions", not from a literary expert.

Memphis 7.9 should be interesting to both people with a technical background and those people that traditionally like to read fiction. The detail not only makes the story believable but also gets the reader emotionally involved. I found myself rooting for the heroes, scared for their very life, disliking the 'ghouls', wanting 'correction', getting mad at the government, etc. The ending literally cries for a sequel.

If I were to give you advice on how to handle any future books, it would be to include more character development. If you can do even one half of that job compared to the technical word pictures that you painted, the next books will satisfy even the 'purest' of novel readers.

1/31/04, Stephanie B, author - Tucson

Wow, what a wonderful book! I don't know how you were able to come up with the different incidents in the different parts of the country and keep them all straight when you were writing the book. I did see your writing style change a little between the beginning and end of the book. I don't know how to describe it, maybe more relaxed? Hurry up with the next book, I am ready!

You may want to know how I responded to a couple of the characters initially for reference in creating your future characters.

I hated the image you first gave of Judy. She came across to me as worrying too much and to be honest the presentation reminded me of when Paul thinks I am over reacting to something and I don't think I am excited at all. I think it is a difference in how men and women view things. I did come to like Judy as a character and the way you used her to bring out the questions and give the answers for earthquake knowledge.

The other character I had a problem with was Tina. Her indecision around JQ asking her to lunch bothered me. And so did the way she pulled Alex into the middle of dealing with JQ. However, I did come to enjoy Tina as a character.

You did a great job with Memphis 7.9. I was almost done with the book when I woke up one night and the realization hit me that your research for this book is true and this earthquake could really happen - even though it is presented as fiction here. That is one thing you may want to emphasize when you are doing interviews in the areas that could be impacted by such an earthquake, that while you have written Memphis 7.9 as a fiction book it is based on facts that show this could really happen in our lifetime.

1/12/04, Richard M, seismologist - California

On February 20 I make a presentation to the central Earthquake States conference in Memphis. I am the keynote speaker so I will give your book a plug. Great book.

12/4/03, Robert G - Vermont (Roundtable Reviews reviewer)

Thanks for sending me the book to be reviewed for "The Roundtable Review". I can't say that I have enjoyed any book more than this one. Tracy should be posting this review by next week. If you wish, I would be very pleased to review the other three books when they are ready.

The review follows:

Rumble! The moderate earthquake predicted by Chris Nelson has hit just about when and where predicted. Will his second prediction prove accurate? Yes, it also occurs about the predicted time and place. Horrors! Chris' computer program predicts a third earthquake, this one a monster 7.9. It is this third, and most catastrophic, earthquake that comprises the book.

Sam Penny has written a book that I could not put down until I had finished reading it. This book is a graphic picture of what may possibly happen if another major earthquake were to occur along the New Madrid fault. Sam's original book, which was a monster novel, has been split into four books, the first of which is "Memphis 7.9". The second book "Broken River" discusses what might happen top the Mississippi River in an earthquake. The third book "The Holy Grail" discusses the attempts to recover life in Memphis. The final book "Exodus" discusses the people who leave the city. I look forward to reading these three books.

11/5/03, Trent F - Florida

Memphis 7.9 should be a wake up call for middle America. Lying miles under the deep alluvial soil of the Mississippi Delta is the New Madrid fault. Two hundred years ago, this fault was the source of the largest earthquakes the United States has ever seen. Today, this highly populated area includes cities like Memphis, Tennessee, Little Rock, Arkansas, and St Louis, Missouri. Centrally located for rail and highway transportation, numerous bridges cross the Mississippi river in this region.

The age and depth of this fault make assessment difficult, but studies seem to indicate that a significant quake could occur every 200 to 300 years. The most recent large earthquake occurred in 1896, but numerous small earthquakes occur almost daily in the region. Thus, preparations for a major event should be part of everyone's life.

Memphis 7.9 is the first book in a "saga" that tells the story of the earthquake from the standpoint of the impact on people, property, and America's economy. Written from the perspective of citizens, seismologists, politicians, and others impacted by the event, author Sam Penny strives to point out the need for preparation, by giving an overview of the potentially devastating societal and economic impact.

Side by side, he provides examples of the results of a lack of preparation, and the results of properly implemented earthquake resistant technology. Concerned citizens, civic leaders, and emergency preparedness workers will find this book to be of value in understanding the risk, and educating the population about potentially life saving preparations.

11/4/03, Phyllis H - California

Although I'm not at all up on the sientific and mathematical significance of all that this book has to offer, I certainly get the drift of the consequences, especially having lived through the Lander earthquake in California in 1993. Our home was in Yucca Valley, very near the epicenter. The damage to our mobile home park was extensive and the nerves of the people there were completely frayed. This book brought back lots of memories. I love the way it was written in a story form making it enjoyable to read. Thanks.

11/1/03, Hamid A, Tehran - Iran

I am a 48 years old male from Iran. I read the notes of the said lecture several times and every time I enjoyed it more. I believe that there couldn't be an easier and more clear way of making laymen like me understand of such a sophisticated and tremendous phenomena which mother nature reminds the human beings of how this so-called solid steady ground beneath their feet could act like a super destructive man-made explosion.

Even though just thinking about an earthquake seems like a nightmare to most people, but the knowledge over this fact is too poor. I would like to know more details about this subject. Is possible for you to provide me with some illustrations as well?

We live in Tehran, the city that most scientists believe she has been built over very dangrous area where is highly prone to very destructive earthquakes. I need to know more about this sleeping giant underneath this area.

Thanks in advance.

10/27/03, Michael K - Memphis

Like 8.4 by newspaper columnist Peter Hernon and THE RIFT by science fiction author Walter Jon Williams (see http://www.thuntek.net/therift), there is yet another novel determined to wipe Memphis off the map.

MEMPHIS 7.9 is the first novel by RV enthusiast Sam Penny, and is the first volume of a proposed tetralogy. Mr. Penny is a retired engineer, and puts into his novel all the hard science that would appeal to the average reader of Analog magazine. Although most of the terminology is explained quite well for the non-scientific reader, explanations for some of the terms (such as asperity, which is essentially an area on a fault that is "stuck") don't appear until well into the novel.

Overall, though, it is a novel about people from different walks of life thrown into a very stressful situation. People such as Chris Nelson, the young graduate student on the breakthrough of a new earthquake prediction model; Paul Kenton, the University of Memphis faculty member cautioning against any premature, foolhardy statements that will embarrass the school; Jenny Fox, another U of M earth sciences student; and J.Q. McCrombie, who double-bills as God's Gift To All Southern Women as well as a construction contractor employing "creative accounting methods" in his retrofitting of highway bridges to improve earthquake safety.

Although I personally feel that Walter J. Williams' THE RIFT was a better researched and better written novel, MEMPHIS 7.9 may appeal more to those who are not as scientific in personality. Sam Penny's dialogue is better handled here than in many other first novels that I have read. Also, THE RIFT was a huge tome (726 pages), and contained a KKK subplot that some Southerners may have found offensive. Sam Penny wisely chose to split his original story into smaller novels. As such, MEMPHIS 7.9 has an ending that
is not altogether satisfying, concluding shortly after All Hell Breaks Loose. However, he has done an adequate job in making the reader care about his characters, even that Good Ol' Boy weasel, J.Q. McCrombie.

10/25/03, Alice Z - California

Sam Penny has combined his experience as a traveler, his background in physics and geology, and his amateur interest in seismology to produce Memphis 7.9, a fictional account of what might happen if an earthquake of 7.9 magnitude were to hit Memphis, Tennessee. It is not a pretty picture!

Sam uses his very ordinary characters, not unlike his readers, to set the stage for the disaster. As a result, when the shaking begins, the reader will be afflicted as well. "Please," I pleaded in my mind with the author, "Don't let anything happen to Chris, even if he is planning to ride it out at the epicenter." It's all there: the initial rumbling, the jolts, the broken freeway interchanges and bridge supports, buildings collapsing on themselves, fires raging, the Mississippi River breaking through the levees. As a Californian who has experienced her share of earthquakes and still can't drive under a freeway overpass without speeding (just in case . . . ), I appreciate the importance of this book.

Sam states that he wanted to combine his retirement goal of writing fiction with his desire to warn people who have become complacent about the potential dangers of earthquakes. One of his characters - you can almost see this villain twirling the ends of his mustache while the audience is hissing - abuses his government funds for retrofitting freeways and buildings, resulting in unsafe structures. Unfortunately, he is probably not alone. "Can't happen here; this isn't California," seems to be the motto for some place as remote from the West Coast as Memphis, Tennessee. But it can, and Memphis 7.9 paints the scenario in glaring detail.

I highly recommend this book. Sam has created a work of fiction that will spur his readers to action and certainly make them aware of what could happen if they don't prepare for a potential disaster.

10/22/03, Sharon M - California

Hi Sam, well, I've finished the book and it was good! Kinda scary to think it might actually happen someday, those people will be in dire shape with no roads in or out, no water, no electric, etc. About the only way to get anything in or out will be by military airlifts and even then, that will take time.

I'm eagerly awaiting the next saga of what happens in the aftermath of the great quake. If ever our enemies wanted to overpower us, that would be the time...

10/1/03, Bill H - California

Sam,

I was traveling last week so I got into your book. I'm currently at the earthquake's beginning...and was distressed to see that the hero techie died in the opening moments of the quake. I liked the guy. I have to say that I like your technical explanations of the quake process. Well done...to this layman anyway.

I can't wait to see what happens to JQ...not there yet...he's still in his building. I presume the whole thing collapses with him in it...which would be fitting.

And from your graphic description of this quake's beginning, I'm getting worried about being out here in CA again...where I live on the San Adreas fault and drive to work atop the Calaveras fault. What am I doing here...?

10/8/03, Bill H - California

Sam,

Finished your book after midnight last night. Still have bad habit of staying up late...quiet time of day. Impressions:

-- great technical read. I learned a lot about how/why the quakes happen and what happens when it's underway
-- the magnitude numbers were a surprise...that this large a quake could happen in mid-country USA...and that the devastation could/would be so huge
-- my only large experience was the Oct 1989 quake out here...which was greater than quakes I experienced in Taiwan and Japan
-- the Oct 89 Bay area quake was child's play however compared to the 7.9 in your book
-- after reading about the aftermath in your book, I'm back into the scared range
-- glad to see that the tech hero survived and the bad guy took himself out fireball with his own pistol. Still like to see the good guys win.

10/7/03, Lowell K - California

Hi Sam-- Just finished 7.9 & could hardly put it down...GREAT JOB!!! I'm passing it on to friends & will follow thru with all the WWW's being notified how good you are.

10/7/03, Linda R - California

Great subject matter. I had a hard time putting the book down, and kept thinking it would make a great movie. Obviously well researched in regards to facts and figures about the area and earthquake stats. I even went home and made sure my earthquake supplies were updated.

9/20/03, Bob P - California

Regards the book..... I'm impressed! No kidding.....!!!!

I have a couple of observations and a hand-full of typo and minor grammatical errors and a few questions regarding character development and 'inside the author's mind' kind of questions but ...............I'm impressed and enjoyed the book immensely.

I would have liked a short glossary of terms and a small map showing the towns but that's the engineer talking. Putting on my escapist reader hat: Did I enjoy it and would I recommend it? Yes............and did I mention I'M IMPRESSED. It got me so interested that I went to the USGS Earthquake Info site...

Waiting for the 2nd installment...

9/15/03, Ann P - California

Sam, I just finished reading your incredible, spell-binding, exciting, easily readable novel! WOW! I really enjoyed it and found it thoroughly entertaining with the right amount of technical description intermixed with the characters' trials. I can hardly wait for the next episode and hope that it is not too long in coming.

This book should be on the best seller list and, of course, should be read by experts in the field who will give it further endorsement. I wish you the very best with getting this book widely distributed and taken very seriously. By the way, tell Alice I am with her. There is NO WAY I would EVER travel to that part of the country. (I hope you are unaware of any serious faults down near San Carlos, Sonora, Mexico.) Congratulations on your success. Keep us informed as your fame increases and your fans number in the thousands, neigh, millions!

When we are next at Jojoba in a few weeks, I want to buy another book for a friend who would really appreciate the technical aspect of the book. Best wishes

9/14/03, Bev K - California

I just finished your book. I'm a fast reader. It was excellent. The plot was compelling, the characters were fleshed out and believable. The technical parts were interesting and simplified enough for lay people. The implications are horrific. I look forward to your next one.